Wells-to-wheel GHG emissions for China: EVs vs ICEs

There are increasing examples of local regions and provinces announcing 100% EV targets for passenger cars by 2035. In that context, this analysis on China presented at the "Inside China Automotive" conference (Nov 2020) shows a few of the considerations faced by policy makers.

Argonne National Laboratory's GREET model was used to derive the wells-to-wheel GHG emissions for China. The carbon intensity for electricity generation in China is ~ 600 g/kWh on average (that's ~ 3X that of California, as reference).

The analysis showed that:
(1) In 16 of 31 provinces, a shift to battery electrics would increase GHG emissions compared to the national avg.
(2) On average across the country, move to hybrids will reduce GHG by 37%, PHEVs by 9% and BEVs by 22%.

Electricity is getting cleaner, but the increase in renewables is also negated by the increase in overall demand.

Also shown in the conference was the EV sales by region - note that EV penetration does not quite match the grid cleanliness (understanding that there is transmission across regions).